Incidence of autism spectrum disorder in children in Kazakhstan and risk factors associated with all-cause hospitalizations

Why this study matters for families

More children than ever are being diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, but most of what we know comes from high income countries. This study looks at nearly every child diagnosed with autism in Kazakhstan over eight years, revealing how often autism is identified, which children are most affected, and what health problems are most likely to send them to the hospital. For parents, doctors, and policymakers, these findings offer a rare, nationwide snapshot of children with autism in Central Asia and point to practical ways to improve their care.

How the researchers followed children across a country

Kazakhstan has a unified electronic health system that links hospital and clinic records for the whole country. The researchers used this system to identify all children under 18 who were diagnosed with autism between 2014 and 2021, based on standard diagnostic codes. They then followed each child from the time of diagnosis until the first hospital stay or the end of 2021. Along the way, they collected basic details such as age, sex, place of residence, and whether the child also had other conditions like digestive problems, epilepsy, anemia, hydrocephalus, cerebral palsy, or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

Autism is diagnosed more often, especially in young boys

The study included 9,993 children with autism. Over the eight year period, the number of newly diagnosed children roughly doubled, and the number of children living with an autism diagnosis at any given time increased even more sharply. Although the overall rates were still lower than those reported in North America and parts of Asia, the upward trend was clear. Autism was diagnosed three to four times more often in boys than in girls, and diagnoses were most common between four and eight years of age. The authors suggest that better awareness, improved screening, and more consistent record keeping likely explain much of this rise rather than a sudden biological change.

Hospital stays are common and often linked to mental health

Nearly six in ten children with autism in this cohort were hospitalized at least once after their diagnosis. Hospitalization rates increased over time, and most stays were for psychiatric reasons rather than for infections or injuries. Adolescents aged 11 to 17 were more likely to be hospitalized than younger school aged children, hinting that emotional and behavioral challenges may intensify as children reach their teenage years. Children living in cities were hospitalized more often than those in rural areas, which may reflect easier access to hospital services as well as differences in how problems are recognized and treated.

Other health problems raise or lower the risk of admission

Many children in the study had additional medical conditions. Digestive troubles were particularly common and strongly linked with a higher chance of hospitalization. Children with gastrointestinal disorders were almost four times as likely to be admitted as those without. Hydrocephalus and anemia also raised the risk. These conditions can be hard to spot in children with autism because communication difficulties and unusual behaviors may hide symptoms like pain or fatigue. Interestingly, children who also had attention deficit hyperactivity disorder were less likely to be hospitalized after the researchers adjusted for other factors, suggesting that these children might receive more outpatient support or that their difficulties are managed differently.

What these findings mean for care

To a lay reader, the central message is straightforward: in Kazakhstan, autism is being recognized more often, and many children who have it also face serious digestive and neurological problems that frequently lead to hospital care. At the same time, the study shows that thoughtful use of national health data can uncover where support is most urgently needed. The authors argue that earlier recognition of autism and its common companion conditions, better primary care, and closer collaboration between mental health and physical health services could reduce avoidable hospital stays and improve daily life for children with autism and their families.

Citation: Mussina, K., Syssoyev, D., Gaipov, A. et al. Incidence of autism spectrum disorder in children in Kazakhstan and risk factors associated with all-cause hospitalizations. Sci Rep 16, 15256 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46715-3

Keywords: autism in children, Kazakhstan health data, hospitalization risk, child comorbidities, autism prevalence