Early detection of construction project risks in Saudi Arabia: a mixed-methods study on warning signs and mitigation

Why construction warnings matter

When we see news about gigantic new cities, entertainment hubs, or transport links, we rarely hear about the projects that run late, run out of money, or quietly get cancelled. Yet these failures can waste billions and slow down national development. This study looks at how to spot the early warning signs that a construction project in Saudi Arabia is heading for trouble—and what can be done in time to save it. By focusing on signals that appear months or even years before a crisis, the research shows how project owners, contractors, and regulators can act before delays and cost overruns become inevitable.

Big building plans, big risks

Saudi Arabia’s construction sector is expanding rapidly under the Vision 2030 agenda, which includes high-profile “giga-projects” and massive housing and infrastructure programs. With so much money and public expectation at stake, the consequences of failed or stalled projects are especially severe. Previous studies worldwide have documented common problems—such as poor planning, weak communication, and budget overruns—but most of this evidence comes from outside Saudi Arabia and usually looks backward, after projects have already gone wrong. The authors argue that what is missing is a forward-looking picture tailored to the Kingdom’s unique mix of rapid growth, complex regulations, and volatile global markets.

Spotting trouble before it grows

Instead of treating failure as a sudden event, the study views it as the final stage of a long chain of small missteps. The researchers call these early missteps “early warning signs”—observable clues that something is off long before a project officially misses its deadline or blows its budget. To build a comprehensive list of such clues, they first combed through international research and compiled 53 potential warning signs, ranging from unrealistic cost estimates and repeated schedule slippages to weak leadership, confused roles, and unresponsive clients. These signs were grouped into five broad themes: cost and time issues, poor planning and scope definition, leadership and management weaknesses, stakeholder conflicts, and broader organizational instability.

Listening to people on the ground

To find out which warning signs really matter in Saudi practice, the team used a mixed-methods approach. They surveyed 96 experienced engineers, project managers, and other professionals working on major Saudi projects, asking them to rate the importance of 41 refined warning signs. They then held a structured workshop, known as a Nominal Group Technique session, with four senior experts representing owners, contractors, consultants, and regulators. In this session, experts first proposed and discussed warning signs individually, and then ranked them collectively. Comparing the survey with the expert rankings allowed the researchers to see where everyday practitioners and veteran decision-makers agreed or disagreed about what truly signals danger.

What the strongest signals look like

Across both the survey and the expert panel, a striking pattern emerged: a relatively small set of signals consistently rose to the top. The most critical were “bad project setup” (poor early definition of scope, schedule, and resources), inaccurate cost estimates, weak or ineffective leadership, and lack of experience with similar types of projects. Persistent schedule slippages and time overruns also ranked highly, but the study emphasizes that these are usually symptoms of deeper setup and management problems rather than isolated issues. The analysis also showed that different roles see risks differently: owners tended to worry more about how well a project is defined at the start, while contractors were more sensitive to underpriced bids that make delivery unrealistic from day one.

Turning warnings into action

Beyond naming the warning signs, the experts developed practical responses linked to each major signal. For example, when cost inaccuracy is a concern, they recommend strengthening tender review processes and employing seasoned cost engineers. When projects show constant schedule delays, they suggest root-cause analysis, resequencing work, or—in some cases—adding shifts, while weighing cost and safety implications. To address poor project setup and leadership, they highlight stricter prequalification of contractors, clearer roles and responsibilities, and more robust reporting and risk registers. Importantly, the authors stress that these measures are not one-size-fits-all rules. Their usefulness depends on contract terms, available resources, labor and safety regulations, and the specific governance arrangements of each project.

What this means for future projects

For non-specialists, the takeaway is that major project failures are rarely surprises to those paying close attention. They are preceded by a handful of recognizable patterns: unclear goals, unrealistic budgets, weak leadership, and slow reactions to early problems. This study provides Saudi Arabia’s construction community with a prioritized checklist of such warning signs, backed by both broad survey data and the judgment of seasoned experts. Used thoughtfully, this checklist and its suggested responses can help owners and contractors intervene earlier, protect public investment, and increase the chances that ambitious projects deliver on their promises under Vision 2030 and beyond.

Citation: Alsulami, B.T., Al‑Shaery, A.M. & Kassem, M.A. Early detection of construction project risks in Saudi Arabia: a mixed-methods study on warning signs and mitigation. Sci Rep 16, 10587 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-45775-9

Keywords: construction risk, early warning signs, Saudi Arabia projects, project failure mitigation, Vision 2030